A Calculated Climate

Bretton Pratt ’27

Since record keeping began in 1880, the hottest year to date was 2024. The Global Environment Outlook, or the GEO-7, predicts that without calculated steps to curve the rising global averages, warming temperatures seen in the recent past may catalyze a changing climate–one that we can not recover from. 

Greenhouse gases, which are components of the atmosphere that trap the sun's heat near the surface of the Earth that include carbon dioxide and methane, are predicted to rise to 75 billion tonnes a year by 2050. That jump is a 50 percent increase from today’s greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere (UNEP, 2025). Not only, but common, crippling heat waves will result from a projected 1.5 degrees celsius rise in global temps by 2050. 

Rising temperatures are dangerous in and of themselves, but this increase will generate a multitude of concerns, from environmental damage to alterations in the climate. 

With rising temperatures, the Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets may collapse, causing the sea level to rise by 10 meters. Thawing permafrost in the arctic regions will release deposits of methane into the atmosphere, a gateway for global warming. In a more concerning matter, the extensive release of methane will generate an ongoing, irrevocable feedback loop of warming temperatures. Some scientists have even suspected that historic, sudden increases in methane may be the cause of past major extinctions (UCAR, 2021). 

It is a common assumption that intense heat leads to dry arid climates. However, warmer global averages are projected to “speed up” the water cycle as a cause of faster evaporation rates. For each degree of warming, the global precipitation averages will increase by 7% (UNEP, 2025). 2 degrees more of warming equates to heavy rain being 1.7 times more likely, and 14% more intense. Not only, but the melting of snow and ice in the summer will be greater in volume than the precipitation that falls in the winter. As a consequence, there will be a decrease of total snow and ice on the planet, leading to a rise in sea level. 

In conjunction to the concern of sea levels creeping up on coastal borders, we are continuously harming the oceans in another way. Oceans are humanity’s own buffer against climate change. The sea enables an intake of excess heat and carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. However, oceans’ sea water mixed with carbon dioxide formulates weak carbonic acid. This acid reduces the pH of oceans, and the pH has decreased by about .1 pH since pre-industrial times (UNEP, 2025). This slight variation in acidity will produce detrimental effects to the growth, reproduction, and chemical communication for marine life (Smithsonian, 2014).

The GEO-7 also predicts that there will be alterations to severe weather. With warmer ocean surfaces, this change provides a surplus of energy for storms–such as hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones–to grow. 

If nothing else, the only way to make change for the future is to act in the present. If governments and individuals are willing to respond to the growing concerns of climate change, together we may be able to curb these dangerous, and potentially irreversible effects.

References:

NOAA. (2017). Climate Change Predictions. Noaa.gov,

‍ ‍https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/climate-change.html

UNEP. (2025). Without big changes, this is what the environment will look like in 2050. UNEP,

‍ ‍https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/without-big-changes-what-environment-will-look-2050

‌UCAR. (2021). Predictions of Future Global Climate. Scied.ucar.edu; UCAR,

‍ ‍https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/predictions-future-global-climate

Kalina Velev. (2025, September 26). Global Temperature – Earth Indicator. NASA Science,

‍ ‍https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/global-temperature/

‌Ocean Portal Team. (2018, December 18). Ocean Acidification. Smithsonian Ocean.

‍ ‍https://ocean.si.edu/ocean-life/invertebrates/ocean-acidification

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